One of the critical enabling technologies of the future lies in the electric battery. Electric batteries are already powering billions of cell phones, laptop computers, and watches worldwide. Without the battery in your car, you cannot fire up the engine. Moreover, you cannot see the road when it rains because the windshield wiper stops working. Look at all the consumer gadgets around us, they are all dead without the battery. A lot of monitoring instruments are run on batteries, too, especially in the medical and military sectors.

The race for battery technology has been revolving around five goals: smaller size, less weight, better recharge ability, more power delivered, and higher capacity for electricity storage. The materials used have evolved from lead-acid to nickel cadmium, nickel metal hydride, and to the present lithium ion and polymer. The achievements regarding battery size and weight have been very impressive comparing today’s mobile phone with an old heavy one the size of a shoebox costing $2000 twenty years ago.

The future challenge lies in further improving the capacity for recharge, power, and storage. The battery industry is aiming at the biggest prize of all: the electrification of the automobile. When cost parity is reached between oil and battery electricity, it will trigger mass adoption of the electric car. The electrification of autos promises to be a revolution of the 21^st century, similar to the steam engine and the internal combustion engine in previous eras. At present, the cost for battery electricity is around $900 per kilowatt-hour. The threshold for mass adoption of the electric car is estimated at around $350, which is achievable between 5 to 10 years at the current rate of price drops due to technological advance.

The requirements for the electric car battery are much tougher than those for smaller electronic gadgets. It needs a storage capacity of at least 250 miles as opposed to the current 100 miles for the Nissan Leaf, the first passenger electric car on the market. It needs to have a longer lifespan despite all the sudden up-down power demands by the driver. As for recharge, it needs a shorter time with the regular electric voltage supplied at home.

With respect to power, the Nissan Leaf and the newer GM Volt have succeeded in delivering enough to satisfy the consumers. Although the weight of the battery is important, it is not an urgent problem because it can be compensated by a lighter electric engine and cooling system, and the use of composite materials in place of metals.

The electric battery is intimately tied to two emerging industries: mobile and solar. Mobile technology stimulates the battery industry because it requires powering the receivers and transmitters embodied in the products carried by the consumers wherever they go. The solar industry requires batteries to store free electricity generated by sunlight for later use. If the electric car is designed to use free fuel from the sun, the car battery must be recharged efficiently at home or somewhere else equipped with a solar roof.

The battery technology is driven by research in material chemistry.  A breakthrough depends on the discovery of a new material or a new chemical reaction. Although the current technology employing lithium ions holds great promises, it may be eclipsed by some better materials or chemical processes as time passes.

(February 2012)

Making a difference requires an attitude before anything else. In the workplace we see so many people working in the ordinary fashion. They just keep working all their lives. They are busy learning and keeping the rules that the system has set up for them. They also enforce the rules to make sure that other people will follow. In short, they are known as paper pushers and bean counters. They are present at all levels ranging from the lowest to the highest rank. If you happen to work in this kind of atmosphere or mentality, it will be hard to see the meaning of work.

Let me cite my personal experience in a public library. The rule is that each person is allowed 2 hours’ time for using the computer terminal. One day, my computer time expired before I could finish my work. Seeing a dozen terminals standing unused, I asked the clerk to grant me an exception. As expected, she replied that the library rule only allowed 2 hours. She could not be blamed for following the rules. She was conscious of making a potential mistake by bending the rules. In this fashion, she was only working without thinking how to make a difference.

Undeterred, I went upstairs and asked another clerk for an exception. She granted me an additional hour with the condition that she would cut me off when the rest of the terminals were all taken up. I happily thanked her and went back to finish my work. The clerk upstairs had made a difference for me, and also made a difference for herself by being flexible and creative while keeping the library resources working more fully and efficiently.

Working to make a difference is seen to  bring great material rewards, as exemplified by many successful people and companies. Their works and products make a difference for the consumers, and transform themselves and the industry at the same time.

Although the workplace is filled with paper pushers and bean counters, occasionally there emerge flexible and creative people who enlighten the whole place, and change the course of direction and the operation of rules. This is known as progress and creativity that overcome the forces of inertia and complacency. Sometimes we may also encounter whistle blowers who shake up the whole place by pointing out the dangers of existing rules or methods of operation. Because they rock the boat, whistle blowers are usually ignored or even punished. Thus progress suffers as a result.

In conclusion, let me reinforce my point by employing some quotes from Albert Einstein:

Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.

We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing.

(February 2012)

According to scientific theory, time originates from the Big Bang that created the universe some 14 billion years ago. It started with an incredible explosion from a point called “singularity” that gave rise to the stars and planets, and space, too. Through the years, while everything else evolves, dies or is created, time seems unchanged and moving on. So time conveniently serves as a standard reference for humans in the study of evolution and changes. All we need is to go back to an earlier period and find out what was happening during that time.

Although unable to exercise control, we have turned time into an immense working tool by inventing the clock, the calendar and other timepieces to keep track of its passage. We understand the importance of the passage of time because it governs when and how things will function or last.

The clock and the calendar fulfill a special function that is very important for the working of a modern-day society. It enables the standardization of the perception of time across different cultures of the world, such as one day consists of 24 hours and one hour has 60 minutes, and so on. This enables industrial production, commerce and other activities to proceed smoothly in synchronization. Imagine what the world would be like if different cultures stuck to their own methods of keeping time.

As individuals living in a modern society, we are programmed by the standardization of time. We work generally from 9 to 5. We breakfast before work hours, lunch in between, and dine afterward. Then we play and sleep the rest of the day. This artificial schedule strains the human spirit. That is why occasionally we take time off for relaxation and recreation.

The common complaint is that there is not enough time to do the things we want to do. Did people living before the standardization of time feel the same way? It would be interesting to find out. In the meantime, may I suggest a solution for you to consider. Time is not what you have, but what you make. If you pursue something with enough passion, you’ll always find the time to do it. This is how you command the mystery of time!

(February 2012)

Which company is going to die next? Nobody knows for sure unless you are a top official or shareholder of the company. The shakeout is essentially a short-term problem that the industry must work through for the next several months. When the dust finally settles, the survivors will become stronger because they will have taken over the market shares of the fallen.

When you invest in stocks, short-term problems should be examined to see if they portend future opportunities. The problems facing the solar industry right now do not look that bad considering the near explosive demands and other long-term potentials.

First, falling prices due to technology advance should be a good thing because it invites the mass market. How many industries possess this extraordinary advantage? The electronics or high-tech industry is the champion in this respect. Solar technology is electronics in nature because it involves capturing sunlight to drive the electrons to generate electricity. Similar to computer chips, the raw materials in photovoltaic cells are predominantly silicon, only in some cases cadmium telluride and others are used.

The method of manufacturing is also similar to electronics. It involves packaging the photovoltaic cells as densely as possible onto the solar panel, thereby increasing its efficiency in absorbing sunlight. The current solar efficiency is around 25% only, hence a lot of room for improvement. Another significant component is labor cost. That is why Chinese firms have risen to dominate world solar production. Like electronic products, solar panels are characterized by continuously improving efficiency combined with plummeting prices. However, it also means short-term turmoil for solar companies as occasional shakeouts occur due to the nature of this business.

Since the sun only shines for half a day, the electricity generated must be stored in a large battery pack for use at night to avoid being wasted. So battery technology must deliver lower storage prices hand in hand with falling solar panel prices. To cite an example of the battery for electric cars, the magic number is $350 per kilowatt-hour to trigger adoption by the mass market. Many experts agree that this price threshold for electricity storage will be reached within the next few years from the current $900.

In view of falling prices for both electricity generation and storage, solar energy is fast approaching cost parity with fossil fuels. If the subtle pollution costs of fossil fuels were taken into account, solar energy had already outperformed its rivals. The current handicap is the initial out-of-pocket cost for solar panel and battery installation, where some companies in the US are already offering zero down payment. When parity is reached in the next few years as expected, there will be a mass switchover to solar energy from fossil fuels. The idea of one solar panel per rooftop is coming closer to reality, just like the realization of one personal computer per household, or one mobile phone per person.

Second, government subsidy in Europe has to end someday if prices have fallen so fast. The reason is that there is simply no need because the market will take care of itself. Despite its shocking announcement, the German subsidy has already contributed to the takeoff and fast growth of solar. Furthermore, it has assisted a number of Chinese firms in achieving global producer status by selling to the German market.

Third, the current overcapacity cannot last long. Why? It has already produced lower prices that have stimulated demands. The higher demands will eventually wipe out the overcapacity. The consumers actually welcome overcapacity for the low price. Only the companies have to worry because it hurts their bottom lines.

Therefore, the current turmoil in the solar industry will turn out to be good opportunities. This is confirmed by the dynamics of the demand. The solar market has become global within two decade starting from near zero to surpassing $40 billion in 2010, and is projected to reach $150 billion by 2020. The biggest markets are currently in Germany and Italy, but many countries with large populations are vying for first place such as USA, China and India. In addition, the rest of the developing world needs solar energy as the best substitute for expensive oil. They cannot wait for the construction of a modern electricity transmission infrastructure. Solar energy enables households and communities to become independent electricity producers and consumers, thus bypassing the transmission line lacking in remote areas.

The following shows the stock performance of the top five solar companies:

JA Solar, China: high (2009) $27, low (2011) $1.21, now (2/17/12) $2.02.
Suntech, China: high (2007) $90, low (2011) $1.70, now $3.65.
First Solar, USA: high (2008) $317, low (2011) $29.87, now $42.59.
Yingli, China: high (2007) $42, low (2008) $2.50, now $4.74.
Trina Solar, China: high (2007) $36, low (2008) $2.81, now $9.64.

From the above, it seems that they were all racing to the bottom, but are recovering since last winter. The lingering question is: Which company is going to die next? I have no idea except to point out the following facts:

The dynamic growth of the global market will keep the solar industry expanding by leaps and bounds. On the other hand, plummeting prices will cause some firms to fail.

The weaker companies will be eliminated, especially smaller ones. The strong companies are those that have achieved economies of scale and technological edge through advanced research. They will expand faster by grabbing the market shares of the fallen.

Government subsidies will become less important as the market expands. The German and Italian governments have succeeded in kick-starting the solar market with subsidies. On the other side of the globe, the Chinese government is determined to make solar a prime industry for the future. Chinese companies tend to receive easier funding from state banks in addition to direct subsidy from the government. The result is Chinese domination of world solar production in just a few years. Thus the failure of a major Chinese solar producer is less likely than a non-Chinese one.

The volatility of solar stocks is very scary indeed. The main reason is that it is an emerging industry of high growth and fast price drops, similar to the chip industry decades ago. Despite all the turmoil, I think solar is a good play with great rewards. As oil prices are surging to over $100 per barrel right now, almost the entire stock market will be negatively impacted someday except oil stocks. However, solar stocks will likely move up with oil, because higher oil prices will make solar more attractive. Therefore, solar is not only an emerging-industry play, but also an oil play at very low costs. How many other industries can you find where such niche exists?

(February 2012)

The convenience of the barcode for the customer is seen in swiping a credit card, banking at the ATM, or borrowing a book from the library. As for the business operator, the barcode’s most obvious advantage is tracking the price and inventory of each item in the business. The data represented in the code is scanned into a software system that gives the manager a complete picture of total inventory and cost. The software keeps track as the products are sold. It tells the manager when the inventory needs replenished, and how fast is the sale of each product. There is no need to physically count the quantity of each item.

The advantage multiplies when the business gets bigger involving large warehousing, distribution, and a network of retail outlets. The software system becomes the virtual manager of accounting, price tracking, inventory and distribution. The potential does not end there. When the business goes global, the software can be upgraded to serve foreign markets, including the handling of international currency fluctuations.

The barcode’s higher objective is to serve the marketing purpose of the business. By tracking the sales of each product, the manager knows which one attracts customers under what circumstances. Further studies of different patterns of sale will yield more valuable information that can be used to improve product quality and sales.

Besides the retail sector, the barcode also benefits production where factories manage raw materials, component parts, and final product sales. For major corporations like Walmart and others that have integrated their business from retail all the way to production, the barcode is indispensable for it enables the management and marketing of each product of the company.

The usage of barcodes is not limited to products and materials. The private record of an individual is commonly linked by a barcode printed on a credit card, identity card, driver’s license, passport, business license, or even an airline ticket. The records include credit history for banks, health conditions for doctors, personal identification for airline or immigration, traffic and other violations for the police.

The barcode is ubiquitous in our daily life. Despite complaints about privacy and abuse, the barcode makes work incredibly quick and efficient.

(February 2012)

Since no system is perfect, the majority vote in a democracy does not guarantee that the common interest of the majority will be respected after an election. The problem is that so many special interest groups are constantly corrupting the system, especially when the rich and powerful in the minority are welcomed to vote with their money and clout behind closed doors.

What is the use of democracy if corruption is unavoidable? Provided that corruption does not get out of hand, an imperfect democracy is better than none at all. At least the special interests have to try harder to woo the majority. Despite its shortcomings, democracy has been gradually replacing the oppressive absolute monarchy, dictatorship, or authoritarian regime in many countries around the world.

On the surface, the majority appears gaining the upper hand due to its size. This is seldom true. When a group gets bigger, it begins to lose focus on its common goals due to so many personal interests represented among its members. At one extreme, the group becomes an unruly crowd. It will follow the first person who throws a stone or burns a car in the street. At the other extreme, the majority becomes apathetic, disorganized and directionless. The term silent majority implies that this disinterested or confused group may be swayed or mobilized by whatever method available, including advertising, propaganda, inspiration, demagoguery, misinformation, or even outright deception. This shows that while a person can think with reason, a large group cannot and behaves in a haphazard way.

In some cases, the successful mobilization of the majority has resulted in monumental changes in society as illustrated by the following:

*The Arab Spring of 2011 where social media is used for mobilization.

*Mahatma Gandhi led his people to terminate British colonial rule in India.

*Martin Luther King, Jr. led the Civil Rights movement in the US.

*Nelson Mandela led the black majority to defeat Apartheid in South Africa.

*Mao and the Chinese Communist Party mobilized the peasants to bring about a communist revolution.

In all of the above cases, the power of the majority is realized through a combination of leadership, organization, a clear common purpose, and an awareness of the crisis facing the majority. If any one of these requirements is missing, the majority will remain silent, confused, and directionless waiting to be exploited by the minority for a long time to come.

(February 2012)

One day, it suddenly dawned on me that I could experiment on my own all the chords in music without resorting to memory or teacher. How? By hitting three keys (1^st, 5^th and 8^th) on the keyboard. Before this epiphany of mine, I had learned every chord by memory and sound. No more! I can now play any possible strange chord based on this simple rule. In contrast with other instruments, the piano has all the keys laid out in repeated octave sequence from low to high. This makes it easy to experiment on your own. Let me demonstrate my simple rule with an octave:

Lowest ———- G Ab A Bb B C Db D Eb E F Gb G———-Highest

The above shows an octave selected that runs from G to the next higher G consisting of seven different full notes G, A, B, C, D, E, F (white keys). All the full notes have half notes (black keys) in between except two pairs, B-C and E-F. For instance, Ab (A flat) is a half note between G and A that is also known as G# (G sharp).

What is C chord? Just press C-E-G (1^st, 5^th and 8^th keys)

What is A chord? Press A-Db-E

What is A# (or Bb) chord? Press A#-D-F, same as Bb-D-F

What is B chord? Press B-Eb-Gb

What is G7 chord? Press G-B-D for the G chord, plus Gb (12^th key) for the 7 suffix.

What is G minor chord? Press G-Bb-D (1^st, 4^th and 8^th keys). Minor means flatting the second key, that is, press 4th instead of 5th in the simple rule.

What is G minor 7 chord? Press G-Bb-D plus Gb

The above show some examples only. If you apply this simple rule, you can play any chord you find in the music world, including all the strange ones played by the Beatles. Try to do the chords with your left hand, and the main tune with the right. You’ll get the hang of it pretty soon. So, wish you have a fun and fulfilling experiment with the keyboard!

Now comes the trumpet story. I knew all along that I had small lungs because in a physical test of blowing a ball up a tube, I could never get it to the normal level. This was also confirmed by shortness of breath after running, or failing to keep full air flowing when I sang. A few years ago, I suddenly felt like playing the trumpet so I bought one, together with an instruction book for beginners. My God, the trumpet was hard! It took me more than a month blowing and blowing until I finally squeeze out a sound! My friends couldn’t believe it when I told them. I learned it the hard way that the trumpet does not require blowing with all your might. It requires skillfully adjusting your lips on the mouthpiece. Despite all the initial difficulties, I’ve been having a lot of fun.

I love the trumpet for two reasons. First, it’s a relatively small instrument to carry around, and it emits a loud sound. Unfortunately, the drowning sound of the trumpet drives family members crazy. They used to say my trumpet sounds like a cow, which is by no means a compliment. Second, the fingering on the trumpet is so easy to learn because there are only three keys to press. Pressing the keys in different ways yields the entire octave of sounds. Going an octave higher or lower depends on how skillfully you blow. Although unable to achieve two full octaves, I can play most of my favorite songs. In my happiest moments, I feel like I am in the same league as Al Hirt or Louis Armstrong. How wonderfully unreal!

Strangely speaking, blowing the trumpet and singing karaoke passionately have helped to enlarge my lungs to a great extend. How do I know? Recently, I went to have an X-ray during a regular physical exam. I remembered last time the technician had to take a second shot because I could not breathe deep enough when he told me to. This time I took a deep one just to avoid any embarrassment. To my surprise, the technician later said, “Good! You really breathed a deep one, didn’t you? Your diaphragm really curved up.” People had told me that you have to use your diaphragm to get more air when singing. I never took singing lessons so I don’t know how to do it. But I did it as confirmed by the X-ray technician. I also know that I have somehow mastered the airflow when doing karaoke. Let me tell you a secret: sing Italian songs like “O Sole Mio” or “Time to Say Goodbye” will greatly expand your lungs.

(February 2012)

The Arab Spring of 2011 has already brought down a number of regimes that had ruled for decades, and is by no means ending yet. The spark came from the self-immolation of a street vendor in Tunisia protesting police corruption and treatment. It turned out that government corruption and brutality struck a resounding chord for most citizens of the Arab World. The major slogan was: “The people want to bring down the regime.” Now that some regimes are down, the message has changed to building a democracy. The next step has begun where elections were held, although the end result is not yet clear. The leaders of this movement are not very visible on television. They prefer to lead and organize through the social media via the Internet.

The Civil Rights movement in the United States lasted from the mid 1950s to early 1960s culminating in the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It was led by Martin Luther King, Jr., a great orator. The original message was the injustice of racial segregation and oppression against Blacks in the South. The method was non-violent demonstration and civil disobedience. The non-violence met with police brutality using dogs, clubs and water canons, which solidified the sympathy and support from the rest of the country. The movement continued after the assassination of King in 1968. The message has since changed to equal opportunities for all minorities in the country.

The anti-Apartheid movement in South Africa lasted from the late 1940s to 1994 culminating in the election of Nelson Mandela to President. A lot of blood was shed in the riots of Black townships and in government crackdowns on members of the African National Congress (ANC), the opposing party representing the Black population. As a leader of the ANC, Mandela was imprisoned for 27 years. After his election as President, Mandela modified the message of resistance to truth and reconciliation rather than focusing on retribution by impulse. A special commission was established to investigate and propagate the true stories about the victims of Apartheid as a lesson to be learned for future generations. This effectively guaranteed peaceful transition for South Africa to a modern democratic society.

Although inspired by the Russian Communists, the Chinese Communist Revolution of 1949 was in fact a grassroot peasant movement led and organized by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) formed in Shanghai in 1921. For thirty years until 1949, China was plagued by an intermittent civil war between the ruling Nationalist Party and the CCP, both of which maintained their own armies. Under relentless attacks from the ruling party, the CCP retreated 3000 miles inland to the mountains of Shensi Province in the Long March of 1934-35. Despite heavy casualties, the CCP found salvation in the peasants of the countryside. At that time, the peasants represented over 90% of the total population. They probably suffered most under the existing system of rampant corruption, hyperinflation, and the exploitation of absentee landlords. The Communists understood the plight of the peasants and cultivated an alliance with them. In return for CCP protection against exploitation by the ruling regime, the peasants supported the Communists with food, shelter, and eager young recruits. Thus the peasant movement grew and spread across the countryside to eventually engulf all the major cities. The ruling Nationalists finally fled to Taiwan in 1949 and handed the victory to the Communists. The Chinese peasant movement has continued up to this day in many different forms even though massive urbanization has reduced the peasant population to about 50% of the total. After the communist takeover in 1949, the US Congress wasted their time in recriminations as to which of their own political parties had lost China. They were totally disconnected from the realities overseas. It was not US fault for they had simply no control of events there. It was the Chinese Nationalist government that lost support of 90% of their population.

What about the present Occupy Wall Street movement? The idea that we are the suffering 99% drives home the widening inequalities between rich and poor. Nevertheless, camping in the streets by the protesters for an extended time creates public health and safety problems besides disrupting the daily business of small shop owners who also belong to the 99%. This runs the risk of losing public support for the movement. Another issue is the flexibility of purpose and message as the movement proceeds. Do they really want to shut down Wall Street and paralyze the banks? If so, for how long? How can the occupation sustain itself if the purpose is to disrupt rather than reform or rebuild? These are the questions for the leaders and organizers to think about.

(February 2012)

As in many ancient cultures, the Chinese emphasize prevention as much as cure, if not more. The concept of prevention was first introduced in the “Book of Interior”, or “Nei Jing 內經” circa 300 B.C. It says, “The superior healer is one who can successfully check diseases before they develop.”「上工治未病」

Everybody talks about cutting costs in health care nowadays. How many are really serious about prevention? There is a direct link between prevention and health care costs. We’ll be surprised how much savings prevention can achieve and how easy it can be done, if we put our mind to it.

What do we mean by prevention?
• Prevention does not mean free from illness, or no death due to illness. It means minimizing the occurrence and intensity of illness.
• Prevention should be pursued out of a desire to stay healthy, rather than out of fear of a particular disease or death.
• Prevention should be your own responsibility, for it’s your self-interest.
• It means cultivating a healthy habit, lifestyle, and state of mind.
• It should give us a sense of purpose like a long-term investment.
• Preventive methods promote good health, peace of mind, and fulfillment.
• Prevention should not be expensive, but it requires a sustaining effort.
• Prevention involves basically strengthening body and soul.

Some simple rules to remember:
• Practice moderation in whatever you do.
• Preserve some regularity in your life regarding eat, work, play and sleep.
• Exercise daily. The simplest method is walking or jogging.
• Remain active. Don’t be a couch potato or TV bum!
• Throw your bad habits out the window. This one is never easy!
• Maintain a healthy diet. Don’t burden your mind with what to eat and what not to eat. If you eat a reasonable diversity of food every week, you’ll have gotten all the nutrition your body needs. The keyword is diversity. Vegetarians can also find a diversity of non-meat products.
• Don’t follow strange and complicated rules that don’t make sense. They are merely commercialized or idiosyncratic methods of prevention.
• Don’t over-emphasize preventing a dreadful disease (cancer for instance) at the expense of marginalizing many others that may hit you.

Prevention should be practiced as a lifestyle, and so must be made enjoyable. It should be made easy and simple and fulfilling. Prevention does not need to have a lofty goal, but a consistent one to make your body more robust so that it does not succumb easily to stress or disease.

(February 2012)

Despite its limitations, the internal combustion engine has transformed the world to the greatest extent mainly due to two reasons: easily portable liquid fuel, and the support of the large oil industry. In recent decades, four major handicaps have developed: rising oil prices, dwindling oil supply, increasing environmental pollution, and climate change due to burning fossil fuels. Thus, the search for alternative energy to replace fossil fuels has begun in earnest.

The search effort revolves around what kinds of fuel to use to produce electricity or steam. If internal combustion is taken out of the equation, we still have to rely on the mechanical power of the electric motor and the steam engine. Both are flexible with fuel and produce no undesirable exhausts. Regarding power delivery, both engines are comparable to internal combustion as evidenced by their employ in the propulsion of ships, locomotives, and autos, but not airplanes yet.

An alternative to fossil fuels must fulfill the following five conditions to be viable: lower price, less pollution, renewable, portable, and infrastructure support. Let’s examine the handicaps and promises of some energy alternatives already existing:

Nuclear fission has been used for decades to generate electricity. The nuclear reactor creates enormous heat to boil water to make steam that drives the turbine to generate electricity. Unfortunately, nuclear fission produces nuclear wastes, a big handicap raising alarms about health and safety. Nevertheless, some countries especially France, Belgium, Switzerland, Korea and Japan have developed quite a significant nuclear energy capacity. In addition, the US Navy employs small nuclear reactors to power its aircraft carriers, submarines and other ships. What about nuclear fusion using hydrogen? Fusion requires very high temperature and pressure like the conditions on the sun. Perhaps cold fusion will work but it’s only in the research stage.

Biomass refers to anything that can be burned to create energy. This includes wastes, cooking oil, sugar cane, corn, ethanol, biodiesel, switchgrass, and so on. It is renewable but still requires burning that will produce carbon dioxide and other undesirable gases. The purpose of biomass is to replace some oil just to relieve its four major handicaps mentioned earlier. Corn for fuel is really a bad idea because corn competes directly with food. Do you really want to choose between eating and driving? Besides, corn requires chemical fertilizers to grow in modern farming practice. Chemical fertilizers are derived from petroleum, thus reversing us back to square one.

Hydro technology has been working for decades. It depends exclusively on geography and water flow. Its environmental impacts will take many years to become evident. Whether it is renewable is hard to say. What if climate change causes insufficient rainfall and snow? Where will the water come from? We cannot dam every river or lake just to construct a hydro project without taking into account the impacts on people and the environment.

Geothermal energy is strictly location-dependent. This limits its possibilities. Iceland is one of the few countries where geothermal has widespread applications.

Wind power depends on geography like hydro but is more flexible. Wind farms can be built offshore or in scantily populated areas. Wind is always renewable except varying from day to day. Battery can solve this problem by storing the electricity generated during windy days for later use. One unique aspect is that wind power is scalable. That means it can be scaled down to serve one household or a small community. Wind power has grown more popular recently, rising to about 5% of total electricity generated in California. This is low compared with Denmark, a leading pioneer in wind, which has achieved the world’s highest rate of 20%.

This leaves solar energy as the final viable candidate. In this sector, the promises overshadow the handicaps as illustrated below:

Sunlight is free and will last for another 5 billion years before the sun finally burns out. Despite available for part of the day, sunlight is much more consistent than wind. Batteries can solve this problem by storing the electricity generated on sunny days for later use.

Compared with wind, solar is even more scalable and flexible. Solar energy can be installed to serve a home, a neighborhood, or a big city. Rooftops provide the best stationary place for installation besides car parks and other open spaces. Solar can be installed on movable objects too, such as ships, trains and cars, even on hand-held devices. A far-fetched idea being studied is to build large solar farms in outer space free from clouds and dust. The electricity generated would be beamed back to earth using microwaves.

Solar energy capitalizes on the advantage of a distributed system that enables the individual to perform independent work. If your home has solar installation, you effectively become electricity independent as both a generator and consumer. You don’t even need a transmission line for supply. Imagine this benefit to be extended to millions of households in poor countries where transmission infrastructure is lacking or unreliable. In developed countries with well established transmission lines, you can feed into the line with your surplus electricity for sale to the utility company. In case you drive a plug-in hybrid or electric car, you will save on your gasoline bills by recharging your vehicle at home.

Solar panels are mostly made of silicon. Its main purpose is to capture as much sunlight as possible. The efficiency depends on how the solar cells are made and how dense they are packaged on the panel. It’s more or less like building a computer chip. New technology has reduced the price of solar panels by half in recent years. Further price drops are expected as technology improves. Furthermore, the efficiency of solar panels will also improve from the current rate of 20%.

Solar panel is not the only product for capturing sunlight. Solar paints, glass, adhesive papers are being developed for the external surfaces of buildings, ships, trains, and even cars to make them independent electricity generators. That will greatly increase the possibility of solar electricity for the mass market.

In conclusion, solar power presents the greatest potential among all forms of alternative energy. The only handicap is the initial capital cost. In recent years, the cost has been coming down drastically due to technological advance. Solar technology will continue to drive down the cost of electricity generation and storage; and drive up the efficiency of sunlight capturing. Solar energy is not a dream for the distant future. It is happening right now and waiting for commercialization to serve the mass market.

For an insightful review on energy, please read “The Quest” by Daniel Yergin, 2011.

(February 2012)